The regulator expects the national economy to slow down by 3.6% in Q3
The National Bank of Ukraine estimates a growth in the national GDP at 7.5% in Q2 2021 against the earlier projected 8.7% shown in its April report, according to the inflation report on the regulator’s website.
“The negative impact of the last year’s poor harvest on exports, food industry and agriculture (in particular livestock farming due to a decline in profitability as a result of higher prices for fodders) remained. A one-week delayed start of harvesting also had a negative impact on agriculture,” the National Bank noted.
The economic growth projected for H2 was revised as well. In April, expectations for Ukraine’s GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 were 4.2% and 3.6% and now are 3.6% and 5.8% respectively.
“The key risks for macroeconomic forecast are strengthening of lockdown restrictions in Ukraine and globally, as well as an ongoing and more significant than expected global inflation surge,” the regulator clarified.
The National Bank left economic growth expectations for 2021–2023 unchanged, at the level of 4%.
As reported by GMK Center earlier, the NBU projected a decline in the national GDP at 4.4% in 2020 against 2019. In January, the regulator expected a 4.2% economic growth in 2021.
Back in April, the National Bank downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP from 4.2% to 3.8%. Expectations for 2022 rose to 4%.
As reported earlier, GMK Center has already analyzed the prospects for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021.
All forecasts for the current year promise a significant improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. At the same time, the range of yearly GDP growth prospects is rather broad, from +1.5% to +6%. The key financial partners of our country are not too optimistic about the economic prospects of Ukraine.
The comprehensive contribution of Ukraine’s mining & metals sector in GDP was 10.6% in 2019, according to GMK Center estimations.