Ukraine faces one of the steepest cuts in new TRQ

Ukraine’s annual steel export losses may reach 1.3-1.6 mln tonnes

The EU’s new tariff-rate quota (TRQ) framework significantly reshapes access to the European steel market. Across all steel product categories covered by the measure, total import quotas are reduced by 46% compared with 2025 import levels. For Ukraine, the impact is even sharper: the country-specific quotas granted to Ukrainian suppliers are 60% below actual 2025 deliveries in the covered categories.

Ukraine received country-specific quotas in nine product categories, and almost all of them are below recent trade volumes. The only positive exception is non-alloy and other alloy cold-finished bars, where the quota is 19.5% above 2025 imports. In every other key category, Ukraine faces a substantial reduction.

Hot-rolled sheets and strips, category 1A, represent the largest absolute hit: the annual TRQ is 483,529 tonnes, while Ukraine exported about 1.31 million tonnes to the EU in 2025. It means contraction by 63.1%.

In wire rod segment (category 16), Ukraine’s annual quota is set at 189,145 tonnes, compared with nearly 380,000 tonnes supplied in 2025 (a reduction of 50.2%). Other affected categories include cold-rolled sheets (-48.2%), rebar (-73.3%), hollow sections (-85.4%), seamless stainless tubes and pipes (-42.4%), other seamless tubes (-50.3%), and non-alloy wire (-29.7%).

The new framework does not affect all suppliers equally. In hot-rolled sheets, Ukraine and Turkiye are among the biggest losers, with quotas down 63% and 64%, respectively, versus 2025 imports. Serbia also faces a 50% reduction. By contrast, several exporters receive quotas that allow them to ship more than they did in 2025: India is up 34%, Japan 131%, and Egypt 139%.

A similar pattern appears in wire rod: Ukraine’s quota is 50% below 2025 exports, while Turkiye is down 52% and the United Kingdom is down 50%. At the same time, Malaysia gains 40%, Egypt 31%, and Vietnam is almost unchanged at -1%.

The expected annual loss for Ukraine is estimated at 1.3-1.5 mln tonnes of steel exports compared with 2025. In practical terms, that means the new TRQs could cut Ukrainian exports of finished steel products to the EU by roughly 50-60%. It means expected annual losses of Ukraine’s export revenue between $850 mln and $1.1 bln.