The Ministry of Economy predicts a drop in GDP by 35-40% by the end of 2022

The National Bank has similar forecasts for the development of the Ukrainian economy

The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine may fall by 35-40% by the end of 2022 due to the war started by Russia. This was reported by the First Vice Prime Minister – the Minister of Economy Julia Svyridenko, Interfax-Ukraine agency reports about it.

“According to our calculations and the macro forecasts made by the Ministry of Economy, the collapse of the economy by the end of the year may be at the level of 35-40%,” she said on the national telethon translation.

Yuliya Svyridenko emphasized that, in addition to victory on the military front, an important task on the economic front is to maintain economic stability and macro-stability and to find ways to stimulate economic activity in the state.

“If we are talking about this way, we should help those enterprises that were already working, have a staff, sales markets and were able to be rebuild in the last six months, so that they continue to work actively,” said the head of the Ministry of Economy.

According to her, in addition to the micro-grant program and eRobota, the government is developing changes to the 5-7-9 program so that enterprises in the frontline regions, whose assets were destroyed, would be able to take a loan and be recovered.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts a 37.5% decline in the country’s GDP in the second half of the year compared to the same period in 2021. In particular, the decline will be 37.5% in the third quarter, and 39.3% in the fourth.

Also, the NBU predicts a 33% decline in the country’s economy by the end of 2022 and a subsequent recovery by 5-6% in 2023-2024, subject to the completion of the active phase of the war and the unblocking of the Black Sea ports.