Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 3.7% y/y in Q2

Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.7% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This is evidenced by preliminary data from the State Statistics Service.

At the same time, the country’s economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, taking into account the seasonal factor. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of this year, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 6.5% compared to the same period in 2023, and by 1.2% q/q. The change in real GDP since 2023 in annual terms is as follows:

• I quarter of 2023 – -10.3%;
• II quarter of 2023 – +19.2%;
• III quarter of 2023 – +9.6%;
• IV quarter of 2023 – +4.7%;
• I quarter of 2024 – +6.5%;
• II quarter of 2024 – +3.7%.

Thus, the second quarter saw another slowdown in economic growth after accelerating in the first quarter for the first time since the second quarter of 2023.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.1% y/y in the first half of 2024. At the same time, according to the Government’s Budget Declaration for 2025-2027, the indicator is expected to grow by 3.6% y/y in 2024, by 2.7% – in 2025, by 7.5% – in 2026, and by 6.2% – in 2027.

The forecasted macroeconomic indicators for 2025-2027 are subject to high uncertainty caused by constant changes in internal and external factors. The forecast in the Budget Declaration is based on the assumption that active hostilities will continue at least through 2025.