The State Statistics Service estimates a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in the third quarter of 2022 at 30.8% y/y

In July-September 2022, the real GDP of Ukraine decreased by 30.8% compared to the same period last year. This is evidenced by the previous State Statistics Service’s data.

Compared to April-June, Ukraine’s economy grew by 9% in the third quarter of 2022. At the same time, in the second quarter of 2022, a fall in GDP was 37.2% on an annual basis.

In November 2022, inflation in Ukraine slowed down to 0.7% m/m from 2.5% in October. Compared to November 2021, prices in November 2022 decreased by 0.1 pp. Core inflation in November 2022 slowed from 1.9% to 1.3% in October.

In the 11 months of 2022, the inflation rate in Ukraine reached 25.7% y/y.

The Ministry of Economy predicts a slowdown rates of decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 to 33.2% y/y. In October, according to Minister of Economy, Yulia Svyrydenko, the economy decreased by 39% y/y due to Russian attacks on critical infrastructure facilities. If the attacks continue, and as a result – there will be outages, the country’s GDP may accelerate its decline.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the NBU expects a decline in GDP of Ukraine in 2022 by 32% compared to 2021. In 2023, the National Bank predicts economic growth of 4-5%. Inflation rates, according to the forecast of the National Bank, will reach about 30% in 2022, and 20.8% next year.

The world economy in 2022, according to IMF forecasts, will grow by 3.2% compared to 6% at the end of 2021. In 2023, the growth of the global economy is expected to slow down to 2.7% y/y. The indicator in 2023 is the weakest since 2001, except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the coronavirus pandemic.