News State macroeconomics 08 November 2019
The export surplus will increase from minus $16.7 billion in 2020 to minus $25.5 billion in 2022
According to the document posted by Oleksiy Goncharenko, an MP representing the European Solidarity, on his Facebook page, the new forecast of the Cabinet of Ministers for GDP growth suggests an 11.6% economic growth in the following three years.
In the opinion of the Cabinet of Ministers, the optimistic scenario suggests a three-year growth of GDP by 16.8%.
“Needless to say, there is no point to discuss a 40% growth over the next five years,” Mr Goncharenko commented.
Specifically, the GDP is expected to grow by 3.7% (by 4.8% according to the optimistic scenario) in 2020, by 3.8% (5.5%) in 2021 and by 4.1% (6.5%) in 2022.
Under the second scenario, the government expects exports of goods and services to amount to $69.2 billion in 2020, $75.7 billion in 2021 and $82 billion in 2022.
Ukraine’s export surplus in three years is expected to remain negative and amount to $16.7 billion, $18.7 billion and $25.5 billion respectively.
As was earlier reported by GMK Center, Kateryna Rozhkova, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, listed the following four factors that could ensure Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019: decrease in inflation, stable foreign exchange market, and confidence of the population and investors in the financial system of Ukraine.