Steel demand in China to fall by 1.5% y/y in 2025 – forecast

Steel demand in China will fall by 1.5% year-on-year in 2025. This forecast was made by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning Research Institute (MPI), Reuters reports.

At the end of this year, this figure will decrease by 4.4% compared to the previous year. Steel consumption in the country in 2024 and 2025 is projected at 863 million tons and 850 million tons, respectively.

In January-November 2024, steel production in China fell by 2.7% year-on-year to 929.19 million tons. The figure is expected to decline by 2% in 2024. In November, the country’s steelmakers reduced steel production by 4.3% month-on-month and increased it by 2.5% compared to November 2023, to 78.4 million tons.

As GMK Center reported earlier, China’s steel exports are likely to surpass the 2015 record of 110 million tons in 2024, reaching over 111 million tons (+23% y/y). In January-November, shipments already amounted to 101.2 million tons, which is 12% higher than the total 90.3 million tons in 2023. The surge in Chinese steel exports occurred in 2023-2024, while in 2021-2022, volumes stabilized at 66-67 million tons.

The sharp increase in exports is due to a weakening domestic market, mainly due to economic difficulties and weakness in the construction sector. Despite numerous stimulus measures by the government, construction in China continues to decline.