Iron ore prices recover in early February

Iron ore prices in early February 2025 were marked by an increase after a decline in January. As of February 6, May futures on the Dalian Exchange stood at $112.22/t, up 5.6% from the end of 2024, while March futures on the Singapore Exchange rose 5.3% to $105.95/t. Thus, prices have recovered to their highest level since early December last year.

At the beginning of 2025, the iron ore market showed significant fluctuations due to a number of economic and geopolitical factors. January saw a decline in iron ore prices due to investor disappointment over insufficient incentives from China and rising stocks of raw materials in the country. In particular, iron ore futures hit a seven-week low on the Dalian Exchange, reflecting concerns about demand from Chinese steelmakers.

However, the situation began to change in the second half of January. Renewed hopes for additional incentives from the Chinese government, as well as a decline in iron ore supplies from Australia and Brazil, contributed to the price increase. Additionally, improved economic performance in China and rising steel exports supported the positive dynamics in the market. As of mid-January, iron ore prices reached a four-week high, reflecting a recovery in demand and optimism among investors.

In February, the iron ore market continued to show volatility. On the one hand, concerns over trade relations between the US and China put pressure on prices. On the other hand, disruptions in supplies from Australia due to unfavorable weather conditions and a weakening US dollar supported quotes, pushing them to a two-month high.

Predicting further development of the iron ore market, analysts expect that in 2025, China’s imports of this raw material could reach record levels, despite the decline in steel demand due to the ongoing real estate crisis. According to estimates, imports may increase by 10-40 million tons compared to 2024, reaching 1.27 billion tons. At the same time, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $75-$120/t throughout the year. The main factors that will influence the market will be China’s economic policy, the situation in the global economy and the dynamics of trade relations between leading countries.