Exclusive Iron ore prices may fall to $94 per tonne in 2026 – consensus forecast

The main reasons are prolonged stagnation in steel demand in China and the launch of the large-scale Simandou project in Guinea

The consensus forecast of leading global analysts, systematized by GMK Center, indicates a decline in the average annual price of iron ore in China to $94/t in 2026. This is 7% below the expected level for 2025 – $101/t. This is stated in the article «Forecasts for 2026: Iron Ore,» which will be published on the GMK Center website on Monday.

Forecasts by major companies and banks range from $85/t (Citi) to $100/t (Vale). Goldman Sachs expects the price to be $93/t, J.P. Morgan and BMI – $95/t, Fitch Ratings – $90/t. Futures on the Singapore Exchange with a maturity date in December 2026 are currently trading at $95/t.

The level of $94/t is critically important for Ukrainian exporters. According to GMK Center estimates, this is close to the break-even point. However, the downward trend is particularly worrying: while the situation may be relatively favorable in the first half of the year thanks to the “golden season” of March–May, prices may fall to $90/t in the second half.

The fall in prices is due to several factors. The main one is the continued stagnation of demand for steel in China and the launch of the large-scale Simandou project in Guinea, which will add 20 million tons of high-quality ore with low production costs to the market. Additional pressure will be caused by China’s introduction of steel export licensing in January 2026, which may reduce production and, accordingly, demand for iron ore.

It should be noted that Ukraine’s mining industry reduced iron ore exports by 4.9% in January-November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, to 28.8 million tons. China remains the largest consumer, with 15.3 million tons (+17.3% y/y). Revenue from mineral exports in January-November amounted to $2.2 billion (-14% y/y).