Exclusive Iron ore prices hit four-month lows in November

By the end of the month, quotation levels had recovered, but fluctuations were significant

In November 2025, the iron ore market experienced significant fluctuations, but by the end of the month, prices had returned to October levels, slightly exceeding them. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, January iron ore contracts stood at $112.92/t as of November 27, up 0.5% from October 31, although they fell to $106.8/t during the month. On the Singapore Exchange, December offers rose 0.6% to $106.85/t, facing pressure in mid-November when prices fell to $101.6/t. The lower price levels reached their lowest since mid-July.

The beginning of the month was marked by increased volatility due to mixed signals from supply and demand. Between November 4 and 7, limited activity at Chinese steel mills and ongoing production restrictions contributed to short-term market instability. Against the backdrop of growing port stocks and high inventory levels in China, iron ore prices came under pressure. At the same time, the commissioning of the Simandou project in Guinea and increased supplies from Rio Tinto created expectations of an increase in medium-term supply.

The middle of the month saw a gradual recovery in prices. In particular, from November 12, optimistic expectations regarding China’s monetary policy and new incentives in infrastructure and industry provided support. The rise in futures contracts on the Singapore Exchange and the Dalian Exchange signaled an improvement in market sentiment, even amid high port inventories.

The behavior of Chinese steel mills remained an important factor. Postponed maintenance plans and limited environmental regulations allowed for stable pig iron production, which prevented further price declines. At the same time, reports of possible changes in port storage policy, limiting long-term storage and providing incentives to state-owned enterprises, could shift the balance of supply and demand, especially in the spot market.

At the end of November, the market showed relative stability. On November 26-27, limited liquidity and constructive market sentiment kept prices high, although iron ore traded in a seasonally weaker period of demand. Prices fluctuated slightly, but the overall trend showed a moderate recovery from previous declines.

Prices are expected to remain at October levels with a slight increase by the end of November-early December, supported by stable production in China and limited activity in the spot market. A decline in demand in the short term remains possible due to seasonal reductions in steel consumption and expected technical shutdowns at plants, but no significant fluctuations are expected.