EUROFER downgraded its forecast for apparent steel consumption in the EU in 2024 to -1.8% y/y

EUROFER, the European steel association, expects apparent steel consumption in the EU to decline by 1.8% in 2024 compared to 2023, to 127 million tons. The previous forecast assumed a 1.4% y/y increase. This is stated in the association’s review “Economic and steel market outlook 2024-2025, Q4”.

Expectations for the growth of apparent steel consumption in the EU in 2025 have also been downgraded from +4.1% to +3.8%.

In the second quarter of 2024, apparent steel consumption in the European Union decreased by 1.3% compared to the same period in 2023, after falling by 3% y/y in the first quarter. The total volume of steel consumed in April-June amounted to 34.8 million tons.

The current decline in steel consumption, which reflects weak demand, began in Q2 2022 due to disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, unprecedented energy prices and production costs. The industry experienced a significant decline in demand, and this negative cycle continued in the second quarter of 2024, in particular due to rising global economic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and general industrial weakness.

“In 2024, contrary to expectations of a more favorable industrial outlook and improved steel demand earlier this year, apparent steel consumption will decline again. At the same time, in 2025, given the positive dynamics of the industrial outlook and the easing of global tensions, the indicator will grow by 3.8% y/y,” the report said.

The overall dynamics of steel demand in the EU remains under the influence of very high uncertainty. Apparent steel consumption is not expected to improve in Q3-Q4 2024, and consumption is likely to remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

According to Eurofer, real steel consumption in the EU will decline by 3% y/y in 2024 (previous forecast -3.1% y/y), and in 2025 it will grow by 0.6% y/y (+2.4% y/y). In the second quarter of this year, this indicator grew by 1.5% y/y after falling by 5% y/y in the previous quarter.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2023, EU steelmakers reduced steel production by 7.4% compared to 2022, to 126.3 million tons. In December, steel production increased by 2.7% y/y – to 9.1 million tons.