Gas prices in Europe rise amid geopolitical tensions

European gas prices increased by 14.2% over the week of June 12-19. In particular, on June 19, the prices of TTF futures for the month ahead on the ICE exchange were fixed at €41.3/MWh.

The market is currently weighing the risk of supply disruptions due to the situation in the Middle East. LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have remained unchanged so far, but GPS jamming disrupts the operation of about a thousand ships in the area every day, according to Windward.

Approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It remains functional for commercial transportation, but the market is weighing security concerns. Electronic interference has led to delays and changes in routing strategies.

The price increase was also influenced by hotter-than-normal weather in Europe, which increased demand for cooling and reduced wind power generation in Europe. However, the impact of these factors is likely to decline.

At the same time, Israel has resumed limited gas exports from its excess reserves, the country’s Energy Ministry said on June 19, almost a week after closing two key offshore fields for security reasons. A source in the ministry said that most of it is currently going to Jordan, with only small amounts going to Egypt.

At the same time, natural gas prices on the Ukrainian market on June 18 saw a sharp rise to more than 31,550 UAH/thousand cubic meters (including VAT), ExPro reported. This was the highest level in more than 2.5 years.

«It is worth noting that we are talking only about prices on the Ukrainian market, which do not take into account the supply of natural gas at special prices under PSO (Public Service Obligation), such as gas supplies to the population, heat and electricity producers. These consumers are supplied by Naftogaz Group companies at fixed prices in accordance with the Cabinet of Ministers’ resolutions,» ExPro notes.

This situation is largely due to rising prices at European hubs, as well as consistently high demand for the resource in the country.

According to the AGSI platform, European gas storage facilities were 54.69% full as of June 18, 2025.

As a reminder, European gas prices in May reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions in Norway. In particular, between May 15 and 22, they remained above €35/MWh.