China increased iron ore production by 7.1% y/y in January-November

In January-November 2023, China increased iron ore production by 7.1% compared to the same period in 2022 – to 904.03 million tons. This is reported by SteelOrbis with reference to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC).

In November 2023, iron ore production increased by 6.6% compared to November 2022, and fell by 1.1% compared to the previous month – to 85.57 million tons.

Iron ore prices had a general upward trend until mid-November, while the trend reversed at the end of the month. At the beginning of December, raw material prices initially rose, but began a steady decline on December 13 amid deteriorating weather conditions in China and weak demand from steelmakers.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the rating agency Fitch Ratings recently reported reviewed the price forecast for iron ore in 2023 towards growth – up to $110/t compared to $105/t in the previous forecast. Forecasts for 2024-2026 remained unchanged – $85/t, $75/t and $70/t, respectively.

In August, Goldman Sachs Investment Bank revised its ore price forecast for the second half of this year downward by 12% – to $90 per tonne. This is due to a projected oversupply of 68 million tons of iron ore and a decline in steel production in China. At the same time, ING analysts expect prices for this raw material to reach $105/t in the third quarter and $100/t in the fourth quarter.