Ukraine's GDP in 2024 is expected to grow by 3.2% y/y

World Bank (WB) has improved its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 by 2.4% compared to the previous year. In 2023, global GDP will grow by 2.6% y/y. This was reported by Interfax-Ukraine with reference to the WB Global Economic Prospects report.

«The global economic growth rate will continue to slow for the third consecutive year this year and will decline to 2.4%, which is almost 0.75 percentage points below the average for the 2010s. On the one hand, the situation in the global economy is now better than a year ago, as the risks of a global recession have decreased. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the near future may create new challenges for the global economy,» the agency notes.

The medium-term outlook for many emerging economies has deteriorated amid slower growth in most major economies, stagnant global trade, and the toughest credit conditions in decades.

The forecast for US GDP growth in 2023 is 2.5%, and 1.6% in 2024. The eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in 2023 and will grow by 0.7% in 2024. China’s GDP grew to 5.6% last year and will grow by 4.5% this year.

Ukraine’s economy, according to WB forecasts, will recover by 3.2% in 2024. In 2023, GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8%.

«Ukraine’s prospects remain rather uncertain. Growth is projected at 3.2% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. Active hostilities are expected to continue through 2024, while base effects and one-off factors, including the crop harvest, are expected to weaken. The partial resolution of uncertainty in 2025 will help exports recover and reconstruction investments gradually increase. Despite the growth in 2023, the achieved real GDP is about 30% lower than before the full-scale invasion of Russia,” WB comments.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in October 2023 GDP of Ukraine increased by 10.5% compared to the same month of 2022. During January-September 2023, the economy grew by 5.5% compared to the same period in 2022.

Ministry of Economy raised the forecast of GDP growth in the current year to 4%. This is a more optimistic forecast than that of the National Bank, which expects growth at the level of 2.9%. In the medium term, we can expect economic growth of 3.5% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025.