Vallourec forecasts a decline in production due to the war in the Middle East

French steel pipe producer Vallourec expects a decline in production volumes and margins in the second quarter due to instability in the Middle East. However, an improvement in financial and production performance is forecast as early as the third quarter. This was reported by Kallanish, citing the company’s first-quarter report.

Financial results for the first quarter of 2026:

• revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year – to $975 million;
• sales volume fell by 13% due to reduced shipments to Asia, Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico countries;
• EBITDA increased to $220 million (compared to $216 million in the first quarter of 2025).

The profit growth was driven by effective pricing and an improved product mix across all regions of operation. This partially offset the decline in production volumes and weaker performance in the mining and forestry segments.

The North American market will remain the strongest throughout 2026. Prices in the U.S. are rising due to a balance between supply and demand, which should more than cover higher energy and raw material costs.

In international markets, the first half of the year will be more challenging due to logistical issues: longer delivery routes to the Middle East and delays in certain orders. Provided the geopolitical situation stabilizes, Vallourec expects activity to pick up in the second half of 2026.

Operational outlook:

• prices are expected to remain stable compared to the second half of 2025;
• ore production: expected to reach 1.4 million tons in the first quarter and approximately 5.5 million tons for the full year;
• EBITDA forecast for the second quarter: expected to be in the range of $175–205 million.

CEO Philip Guimo noted that customers are forced to respond to reduced oil and gas supplies as countries around the world prioritize energy security. This should stimulate drilling activity in the short and medium term.

Markets outside the Middle East are seeing high tender activity for offshore and deepwater projects. In the U.S., order volumes remain high, while imports of OCTG (oil and gas country tubular goods) pipes continue to decline, particularly in the seamless pipe segment. New trade investigations are expected to promote fair competition in the market.

As reported by GMK Center, according to data from the International Tube Association (ITA), global tube production grew by 10% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 177.9 million tons. The largest growth (+37% year-on-year, to 31 million tons) was recorded in the segment of pipes with a diameter of over 16 inches. The oil and gas sector accounted for 51% of demand, followed by the automotive and construction industries. Due to the dominance of welded pipes (73% of the market), the industry is heavily dependent on hot-rolled steel prices.