Vale forecasts iron ore price at $100/ton in 2026

Iron ore prices in 2026 will stabilize at around $100/t. This forecast was announced by Brazilian mining company Vale, according to Kallanish.

In particular, an increase in supply from large mining companies, the development of the giant Simandou deposit in Guinea, and a gradual decline in demand from China are expected.

Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta stressed that the industry is undergoing structural changes. Deposits are aging, their exploitation is becoming increasingly expensive, and competitors are forced to switch to lower-quality ores. According to him, the depletion of reserves and the rising cost of production have radically changed the market model, and the company has raised its long-term price forecast from $90/t to $100/t.

According to Vale’s estimates, the global mining industry is losing 50-60 million tons of annual production capacity due to the natural depletion of deposits, not counting the additional 85 million tons that are mined in excess of supply and demand. This imbalance is creating a new break-even point for the industry at $100/t, said Executive Vice President of Commerce and Development Rogério Nogueira.

Vale is preparing for new market conditions by reviewing its product portfolio. In 2025, the share of premium brands BRBF, Mid-Grade Carajás, and Pellet Feed China will reach 61%, compared to 36.6% in 2023. At the same time, the share of high-quality ores will decrease from 29% to 18%. The company also plans to increase supplies of Mid-Grade Carajás to 50 million tons and Pellet Feed to 40 million tons.

According to Vale’s forecasts, global demand for seaborne iron ore will remain stable over the next four years. At the same time, consumption is expected to grow in India, Southeast Asia, and the MENA region, which are increasing their steelmaking capacities. Against this backdrop, the company is investing in increasing production and improving logistics flexibility to maintain its position in key markets and provide sustainable solutions for green steel producers.

It should be recalled that Vale has lowered its forecast for iron ore production in 2026 to 335-345 million tons. The previous forecast was 340-360 million tons. This year, the company expects production to reach approximately 335 million tons. Rolled steel production is expected to reach 31 million tons in 2025, 30-34 million tons in 2026, and grow to 60-70 million tons by 2030.