Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 34.4% y/y in January

In January 2026, Ukraine’s mining industry reduced iron ore exports by 34.4% compared to January 2025, to 2.05 million tons. Compared to the previous month, the figure decreased by 7.5%. This is evidenced by GMK Center calculations based on data from the State Customs Service.

China is traditionally the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. During the month, shipments of raw materials in this direction amounted to 855.5 thousand tons (-50.4% y/y; -23.8% m/m). Slovakia received 302.95 thousand tons (-25.3% y/y; -5% m/m), and Poland received 282.39 thousand tons (-29.3% y/y; +8.9% m/m).

Revenues from mineral exports in January amounted to $160.25 million (-0.7% m/m; -35.1% y/y).

GMK Center expects that in 2026, iron ore exports from Ukraine will decline by 5% y-o-y, or by 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. The main factors are lower iron ore prices in China and the deterioration of Ukrainian suppliers’ competitive positions in this market against the backdrop of the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea and higher logistics costs. The losses may be partially offset by growing demand in the EU due to regulatory restrictions on steel imports. The forecast is based on market factors without taking into account military risks.

As a reminder, by the end of 2025, Ukraine reduced its iron ore exports by 8% compared to 2024, to 30.99 million tons. China is traditionally the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. During the period, shipments of raw materials in this direction amounted to 16.41 million tons (+8.7% y/y). Slovakia received 4.4 million tons (-11.4% y/y), and Poland received 4.17 million tons (-18.1% y/y).

The main producers of iron ore raw materials in Ukraine are Ingulets Mining, Kryvyi Rih Iron Ore Plant, Poltava Mining, Yeristovsky Mining, Northern Mining, Central Mining, Southern Mining, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Sukha Balka, and Rudomain.