Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 11.9% y/y in 1H2025

In January-June 2025, Ukraine’s mining industry reduced iron ore exports by 11.9% compared to the same period in 2024, to 16.14 million tons. This is evidenced by GMK Center calculations based on data from the State Customs Service.

China is traditionally the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore. During this period, shipments of raw materials in this direction amounted to 8.27 million tons (-1.9% y/y). Slovakia received 2.41 million tons (-8.6% y/y), and Poland received 2.32 million tons (-9% y/y).

During the second quarter, iron ore exports amounted to 7.64 million tons, which is 17.9% less than in the same period of 2024 and 10% less than in the previous quarter.

In June, Ukraine exported 2.59 million tons of mineral resources, which is 8.1% more than in the previous month and 6.5% less than in June 2024. Year-on-year, the indicator has been declining for the fifth month in a row, while month-on-month, it grew for the first time after two months of stagnation. 1.21 million tons were sent to China (+15.4% month-on-month; +14.3% y/y) of raw materials were sent to China, 420.69 thousand tons (-1.4% m/m; -7.8% y/y) to Slovakia, and 397.01 thousand tons (+2.5% m/m; -22.6% y/y) to Poland.

Revenue from exports of raw materials in June amounted to $195.53 million (+8.1% m/m; -16.8% y/y), and in January-June – $1.27 billion (-20.8% y/y). In the second quarter, the indicator decreased by 21.3% y/y and 15.4% q/q – to $581.63 million.

Iron ore prices at the beginning of July 2025 rebounded to two-month highs. In particular, during the week of June 30–July 4, September iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rose by 2.3% – to $102.2/t, while August contracts on the Singapore Exchange are valued at $96.15/t (+1.6%). In the short term, prices may remain within the range of $95-100/t, provided that high pig iron production volumes in China are maintained.

The current dynamics of exports and prices for raw materials indicate that Ukraine’s mining industry is under double pressure – both from external market factors and from internal economic and administrative difficulties. Declining demand from key trading partners, unstable raw material prices, high logistics costs, and tax distortions are complicating the work of companies that traditionally provide a significant share of foreign exchange earnings to the budget.

In particular, the problem of non-refundable value-added tax (VAT) on exported products has had a significant negative impact on the industry. For example, Ferrexpo suspended the operation of two pellet production lines in May this year due to the state’s debt of over $25 million in VAT refunds.

«We have an external enemy, and now more than ever we must be united for victory and the future. The non-refund of Ferrexpo’s VAT leads to a decrease in the company’s production volumes, a decrease in shipments to our railways and ports, a decrease in revenues from the export of Ukrainian products, a reduction in investments in our economy, and a decrease in Ukraine’s GDP,» said Olexander Kalenkov, president of Ukrmetprom.

In the context of war and a difficult external economic situation, state support for strategic industries such as iron ore should be a priority. Without this, the country risks losing one of its key sources of foreign exchange earnings and national currency stability.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Ukraine increased its iron ore exports by 89.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, to 33.699 million tons. Shipment volumes increased mainly due to the opening of the maritime corridor in August 2023. Revenue from iron ore exports from Ukraine in 2024 amounted to $2.8 billion (+58.7% y/y).

The main producers of iron ore raw materials in Ukraine are Ingulets Mining, Kryvyi Rih Iron and Steel Plant, Poltava Mining, Yeristovsky Mining, Northern Mining, Central Mining, Southern Mining, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Sukha Balka, and Rudomain.