Ukraine needs strong protection for its domestic market, – experts

Ukraine needs strong protection for its domestic steel market, and this requires joint efforts by the business community and the government. This was discussed during the conference “Trade Wars: The Art of Defense,” organized by the law firm Ilyashev & Partners in collaboration with Done.

Ukrainian MP Oleg Dunda emphasized that Ukraine’s accession to the EU is a political issue and will depend on the global situation after the war; integration will not take place until the war ends.

He noted that modern Europe is experiencing a deep industrial crisis, and under these conditions, European leaders will fiercely defend their own markets, while the interests of Ukrainian business will be secondary to them.

“It is time for our companies to stop acting on the principle of ‘every man for himself.’ A strong domestic market must become our sole asset. Business and the state must form a clear public demand for the protection of domestic producers in order to engage with Brussels from a position of pragmatism and strength,” Dund emphasized.

Over 80% of Ukrainian metal is exported to Europe—new tariff quotas will take effect in the EU starting July 1 of this year.

As noted by Oleksandr Kalenkov, president of the Ukrmetallurgprom Association, the main risks of this scenario are new protectionist barriers and the implementation of CBAM, which, due to political pressure in the EU, could completely close the European market to Ukrainian steel by 2030.

Another threat is the rise in imports to Ukraine’s domestic market from 25% to 40%, with a significant portion of the products having a hidden Russian origin (slabs processed in Turkey or China to circumvent sanctions). The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade (DG Trade) has already openly drawn attention to Kyiv’s passivity in defending its economic perimeter.

“The European Commission warns: if Ukraine does not begin to rigorously protect its domestic market, it will become a gray zone for subsidized products from third countries. National anti-dumping instruments must be immediately adapted to the realities of war. Otherwise, during reconstruction, billions of dollars will go to finance foreign plants instead of supporting the domestic mining and metallurgical complex—the foundation of the country’s defense strength,” Kalenkov emphasized.

Lyudmyla Kripka, Executive Director of the Ukrcement Association, stated that the second phase of CBAM has effectively turned into an economic embargo on Ukrainian exports due to discriminatory default CO2 emission values and the requirement for in-person visits by verifiers amid the war. Thanks to joint advocacy by the business community and Ukraine’s Trade Representative Taras Kachka, the restrictions on neighboring countries have been partially eased.

“Given that Brussels’ requirements have blocked logistics, national anti-dumping duties remain the only effective protection. They do not stop imports but force foreign players to play by the rules, directing funds to the state budget to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” she explained.

Lyudmyla Kripka also spoke out against replacing existing duties on imports from Moldova and Turkey with importers’ “price commitments,” as these lack control mechanisms and divert funds out of the country. In her view, it is precisely anti-dumping measures that level the playing field and allow Ukrainian plants to continue domestic investments during the war.

Serhiy Lavrynenko, CEO of Stalkanat PJSC, emphasized that in the context of global metal overproduction, protecting Ukraine’s domestic market is a matter of survival for the industry. An effective state protectionist policy should stimulate the creation of new local production facilities capable of displacing imports. However, domestic processors are currently facing technological lag in their raw material base.

“We are ready to invest in modernization, but today Ukrainian steel mills are unable to supply processors with raw materials of the quality required for high-tech products—we are losing out to foreign competitors in both price and performance. When implementing anti-dumping measures, the government must conduct thorough studies of the national interest. We need balanced trade protection that safeguards jobs at every stage of the production chain,” emphasized Serhiy Lavrynenko.

Serhiy Povazhnyuk, Deputy Director for Development at the state-owned enterprise “Ukrpromzovnishchexpertiza,” presented an analysis of goods manufactured in China and Turkey from cheap Russian raw materials (at a discount of up to 20%) and supplied to Ukraine at a cost reduced by 10–15%, displacing local businesses. Another threat is large-scale expansion from China due to excess cement and steel capacity in that country following the end of its domestic infrastructure boom.

“Since there are virtually no other effective mechanisms to protect businesses besides anti-dumping measures under the WTO, it is critically important for us to establish a state-run import monitoring system. This will allow us to promptly identify and quickly block products with a Russian raw material origin that are transiting through third countries, in collaboration with specialized legal advisors, before the damage to the manufacturer becomes irreversible,” noted Povazhnyuk.

Daria Sarkhosh, Deputy Chief Operating Officer at Done, highlighted the transformation of international trade structures and logistics chains. Since 2022, Ukrainian businesses have completely shifted their efficiency paradigm: instead of speed and costs, the focus has shifted to delivery predictability, flexible planning, and currency risk management. The situation is complicated by increased financial compliance and banking monitoring, which, amid customs delays, causes cash flow gaps due to the freezing of working capital in lengthy transit cycles. The market needs alternative financing instruments for transactions secured by goods.

Olena Omelchenko, Partner at Ilyashev & Partners Law Firm and Head of the International Trade Practice, noted: the modern world is moving away from the classic principles of globalization toward strict protection of domestic markets and competition for industrial investment. In these conditions, the legal protection of national interests before the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade and the management of anti-dumping investigations are becoming key tools for the survival of large enterprises.

“Today, the state and business face the strategic question of shaping Ukraine’s future economic model. Trade wars directly impact logistics, investment, and business. In the context of war and rising protectionism, the issue is much broader than simply exports or imports: we are talking about whether Ukraine will be able to preserve its own industry at all and adapt to the new rules of global trade. The key challenges for domestic manufacturers are readiness for strict European competition rules, meeting CBAM environmental compliance requirements, and the ability to legally protect the domestic market from unfair imports,” she emphasized.

As a reminder, Members of the European Parliament recently approved new measures to protect the EU steel market. When allocating quotas, Ukraine’s status as a candidate country with specific security concerns will be taken into account.