The amount of scrap in January-March 2023 is estimated at the level of 300-320 thousand tons
The Ukrainian Association of Secondary Metals UAVtormet predicts that the export of ferrous metal scrap from Ukraine will increase to 12-15 thousand tons in the first quarter of 2023.
Volodymyr Bublei, president of UAVtormet, told about it in his comment for GMK Center.
The above-mentioned figures are components of the balance of scrap metal production and consumption in Ukraine for the first quarter of 2023 and are indicated in the corresponding letter to the Ministry of Strategy and Industry. It also states that the collection of scrap metal in January-March will be estimated at 300-320 thousand tons, the supply of raw materials to Ukrainian steelmakers will be 280-320 thousand tons.
It is expected that the volume of external deliveries of scrap metal in the first quarter will amount to 12-15 thousand tons.
“We expect a small increase in the export of scrap metal, but there will be no breakthrough in this matter. Logistical and administrative difficulties, including obtaining an export certificate EUR.1, hinder the increase in the export of this type of raw material. In January, we expect that exports will amount to 6-7 thousand tons,” Volodymyr Bublei notes.
As of January 2023, UAVtormet forecasts scrap collection in Ukraine in 2023 even below the level of the previous year – 900-950 thousand tons, and the supply of raw materials to steel plants – 800-820 thousand tons. The possible volume of scrap export in 2023 is estimated in 50-80 thousand tons.
In December 2022, the association’s forecasts for 2023 were as follows:
- the amount of scrap metal collection – 1.2-1.25 million tons under the realistic scenario and 1.85-1.9 million tons – under the optimistic scenario;
- internal supply of scrap metal to steel plants – 0.9-0.95 million tons and 1.5-1.6 million tons;
- export of scrap metal – 200-220 thousand tons and 300-320 thousand tons.
Collection of scrap ferrous metals was and remains the most important factor for the work of Ukrainian steel industry. The military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine greatly affected the work of Ukrainian industrial enterprises and related industries. According to UAVtormet, the dynamics of the fall of key indicators of the Ukrainian scrap metal market in 2022 were as follows:
- the volume of scrap collection – by 75.9%, to 996.7 thousand tons;
- domestic supplies to steelmakers – by 73%, to 895.7 thousand tons;
- export of scrap – by 87.1%, to 53.6 thousand tons.
GMK Center’s analysts earlier expected, that in 2022, the volume of scrap collection in Ukraine may decrease by 78%, in particular, due to the loss of collection capacities in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.