The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026

The World Bank predicts that Ukraine’s economic growth will slow to 2% this year from 2.9% last year. This is stated in the institution’s new report, “The Economic Situation in Europe and Central Asia: Jobs and Prosperity.”

In 2026, Ukraine’s GDP growth will also be 2% on an annualized basis, and it is expected to accelerate to 5% only in 2027.

As noted, the prolonged Russian invasion is affecting investment and business activity. Gas imports reached their highest level in nearly two years as infrastructure damage limited domestic production. Growth has also been slowed by weaker agricultural exports, reflecting unfavorable weather conditions and the EU’s restoration of the pre-invasion trade regime, which tightened restrictions on key Ukrainian agricultural products.

During the first half of 2025, the value of exports fell by almost 5% amid a decline in exports to the European Union, which accounts for almost 60% of Ukrainian exports, the report said.

In June this year, the World Bank expected Ukraine’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.2% in 2026.

It should be recalled that Ukraine’s real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 grew by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Compared to the previous quarter, taking into account seasonal factors, real GDP grew by 0.2%. In the first quarter of this year, the figure was 0.9%.