The State Statistics Service has revised the rate of GDP decline in Q1 downwards to 0.6% y/y

The economic situation is deteriorating due to the impact of winter shelling on the energy sector and the electricity shortage

The State Statistics Service has revised downwards its estimate of the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, from 0.5% to 0.6%. Compared with the previous quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, real GDP fell by 0.7%. This was reported by the State Statistics Service.

Nominal GDP in the first quarter of this year stood at UAH 2,047.2 billion.

Taking into account the poorer results of the first quarter, the difficult situation in the energy sector and the accumulation of negative economic effects from the war in the Middle East, the NBU has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% year-on-year.

For its part, the government plans to review the macroeconomic indicators of economic development, in particular due to the negative impact of winter shelling on the energy sector. The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects growth of 2.4% year-on-year.

It should be noted that Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8% in 2025, compared to 3.2% in 2024. According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s nominal GDP last year stood at UAH 8.9 trillion.

As reported by GMK Center, Ukraine’s GDP in 2025 was 21% lower than pre-war levels. The country needs new drivers of growth, which can only be found in the industrial sector. The main factor supporting the economy was external financing, which amounted to $52.4 billion last year.