The State Statistics Service estimates a fall in Ukraine’s GDP in the first quarter at 10.5% y/y

Compared to the previous quarter, the country's economy increased by 2.4% in January-March 2023

In January-March 2023, the real GDP of Ukraine decreased by 10.5% compared to the same period last year. This is evidenced by the previous State Statistics Service’s data.

These are the lowest quarterly rates of decline of the country’s economy since the beginning of the war, in particular:

• in the first quarter of 2022, GDP fell by 14.9%;
• II quarter – by 36.9%;
• III quarter – 30.6%;
• IV quarter – by 31.3%.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the economy of Ukraine increased by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2023, taking into account the seasonal factor.

«Such data indicate that the economy of Ukraine is adapting and recovering at a faster pace than previously predicted. It continues to work and overcome the challenges of war,» noted First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy of Ukraine Julia Svyridenko.

The rate of inflation in Ukraine in May 2023 increased to 0.5% compared to 0.2% in April. Compared to May 2022, inflation decreased to 15.3% compared to 17.9% in April. Core inflation slowed to 0.3% in May from 0.5% in April and 1.3% in March. In January-May 2023, inflation in the country was 3.8%, and the base rate was 3.3%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, on November 3, 2022, the Verkhovna Rada in the second reading and as a whole adopted the draft law «On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2023». In 2023, the government expects GDP growth of 3.2% and an inflation rate of 28%.

At the same time, the National Bank worsened the growth forecast of the gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2023 to 0.3% from 4% in the previous forecast.