The NBU has downgraded its estimates of migration flows for the coming years

Prolonged migration outflows will hamper economic recovery and increase inflationary pressure

In its July inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) downgraded its estimates of migration flows for the coming years.

In 2025, the regulator expects a net outflow of about 0.2 million people abroad—these assumptions remain unchanged.

The NBU predicts that in 2026, the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar rate to this year (about 0.2 million people). At the same time, the April forecast predicted the return of 200,000 Ukrainians. The National Bank believes that net returns will only begin in 2027, with around 0.1 million people returning (compared to 0.5 million in the previous April forecast).

As the regulator notes, the prolonged migration outflow and slow return will lead to a continuing labor shortage and significant unevenness in terms of types of activity and regions.

“This will hamper economic recovery and stimulate further wage growth at a faster pace than productivity growth, which will increase inflationary pressure,” the report says.

The NBU points out that the security risks associated with the war remain significant. If they intensify, the migration outflow will also increase. Another negative factor for the migration forecast is the more active policy of other countries’ governments to retain Ukrainians, especially those involved in the labor market.

“The realization of these risks will lead to a greater labor shortage and a reduction in the number of domestic consumers, with corresponding negative consequences for GDP and inflation,” the National Bank notes.

At the same time, the rapid normalization of economic conditions, the rapid increase in investment in the restoration of infrastructure and production capacities, and, consequently, the creation of jobs and corresponding campaigns aimed at migrants, may stimulate the return of Ukrainians.

According to the NBU’s forecast, real wages will grow by about 5% per year in the current and next year, and by almost 4% in 2027.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the growth of the Ukrainian economy began to slow down in the second quarter of 2024, and based on the results of the first half of 2025, it can be stated that, according to certain indicators, it has already entered a state of decline. There are practically no growth drivers left, the government’s economic policy does not contribute to the emergence of new ones, and the ongoing war worsens conditions for business. GDP growth has slowed, and manufacturing and construction are already showing negative dynamics.