News State macroeconomics 11 May 2021
The rising incidence of coronavirus poses risks to the Ukrainian economy
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture (Ministry of Economy) expects a 2.2% decline in Ukraine’s GDP in Q1. That was stated by the Minister of Economy, Igor Petrashko, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
“First, the Ministry of Economy expected a fall of 4.8% in 2020 and around 3% in Q1 2021. In fact, the drop decreased to 4% in 2020 and, consequently, we expect a ‘minus’ in January–March at the level of 2.2%, with regard to lockdown,” the Minister explained.
He stressed that an increase in the incidence of coronavirus and in the number of regions in the ‘red’ zone poses risks to the Ukrainian economy. Yet these factors should not have such negative implications as in April–May 2020.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic forecasts are expected to be updated in late April.
As reported earlier, the Ministry of Economy initially forecasted a 3% drop in Ukraine’s GDP in Q1, compared to the same period a year earlier.
GMK Center’s analysis showed that the prospects for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021 are estimated at 3–5% on average.