The IMF has improved its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than expected in October last year.

«Global economic growth continues to show considerable resilience despite significant trade disruptions caused by the US and heightened uncertainty,» the fund said in a blog post.

Most of the improvement, according to the new economic review, is attributable to the United States and China.

In 2027, the global economy will grow by 3.2%.

The fund notes that the current forecasts have not changed significantly compared to the October review.

«Headwinds from trade policy changes are offset by tailwinds from rapid growth in technology-related investment, including artificial intelligence, more in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, generally accommodative financial conditions, and private sector resilience,» the forecast explains.

Global inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Inflation forecasts are also broadly unchanged from October and suggest that inflation will return to target more gradually in the United States than in other major economies.

As for risks to the global economy, in particular, a reassessment of expectations for labor productivity growth in the AI sector could lead to a decline in investment and trigger a sharp correction in the financial market, spreading from companies related to this sector to other segments. This factor arises against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, increased use of export controls on critical resources and trade restrictions, as well as reduced fiscal space in many countries.

The IMF forecasts US economic growth of 2.4% this year, China’s at 4.5%, and the eurozone’s at 1.3%.

It should be recalled that in its November review, the European Commission improved its forecast for EU GDP growth in 2025 to 1.4% from 1.1% expected in May. At the same time, the estimate for economic growth in 2026 was lowered to 1.4% from 1.5% forecast in the spring.