The IMF has downgraded forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026

The Fund notes that the risks to the economy remain extremely high

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026. This is stated in an IMF press release regarding the reaching of a staff-level agreement on the first review of the EFF programme.

As noted, despite the war with Russia and the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East, macroeconomic stability has generally been maintained thanks to sound macroeconomic policies and substantial external support from Ukraine’s partners.

The NBU has maintained sufficient international reserves, preserved financial stability and kept inflation expectations low, despite the turmoil.

“However, GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1–1.6% in 2026 due to the consequences of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East, and risks remain extremely high,” the Fund’s statement reads.

It should be noted that in the April World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF estimated Ukraine’s GDP growth for the current year at 2%.

It should be recalled that the State Statistics Service revised downwards its estimate of the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter compared with the same period last year to 0.6% from 0.5%. Compared with the previous quarter, taking into account seasonal factors, real GDP fell by 0.7%.

It should be noted that Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8% last year, compared to 3.2% in 2024. According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s nominal GDP last year stood at 8.9 trillion hryvnias.