Demand for steel in Germany will not recover until 2025, but the figures are unlikely to significantly exceed the level of the 2020 coronavirus crisis. This is stated in the commentary of the German steel association WV Stahl on the global steel demand forecast of the WorldSteel Association.
According to WorldSteel, global steel demand will recover in 2024-2025 within 1-2% after a prolonged negative phase amid the COVID crisis in 2020. This will be facilitated by the reduction in rolled steel supply over the past two years. At the same time, this forecast is based on the stable development of China, the recovery of the steel industry in developing countries, developed countries and the United States.
The biggest challenges in the global steel industry are facing the European Union and especially Germany. Demand for steel in the EU will recover in 2024-2025, but at a slow pace. For Germany, the forecast for demand growth in 2024 is insignificant – at the technical level – with an increase in 2025. At the same time, this figure is unlikely to significantly exceed the level of the 2020 coronavirus crisis.
«Despite the global economic recovery, we are not making any progress in this country. This is bad news that extends far beyond our sector, because steel demand is an indicator of the general condition of Germany as an industrial location. If we as a society want to achieve climate goals while maintaining our economic strength and resilience, we need a strong industry. And in order to bring Germany forward as an industrial location again, the necessary steps must be taken now. This fundamentally means that we, both in Germany and in the EU, find an answer to the strategic location policies that are currently making other regions of the world strong and moving forward», comments Kerstin Maria Rippel, executive director of WV Stahl.
As GMK Center reported earlier, WorldSteel expects steel demand to grow by 1.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, to 1.79 billion tons. In 2025, steel demand will grow by 1.2% compared to 2024 to 1.81 billion tons.
Demand for steel in China in 2024 will remain approximately at the level of 2023, and in 2025 will return to a downward trend. In India, it will grow at the highest rate – by 8% in 2024 and 2025. In general, the global steel demand forecast, excluding China, is for growth of 3.5% in 2024-2025.
Germany is among the ten largest steel producers in the world according to World Steel. In 2023, the country decreased steel production by 3.9% compared to 2022 to 35.4 million tons, ranking 8th in the global ranking of producing countries.
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