Scrap consumption in China to fall by 3% y/y in 2024 – analysts

Consumption of steel scrap in China will decrease by 3% in 2024 compared to 2023. This was stated by Fubao analysts at the 2025 China Metal New Materials and Circular Economy conference, Kallanish reports.

According to Hu Hongsheng, director of Fubao’s research department, the annual consumption of raw materials is projected at 236.42 million tons. In particular, 77.9 million tons will be used to produce steel in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), and 236.42 million tons in blast furnaces (BFs).

Steel scrap prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term, while long-term expectations still depend on actual circumstances.

As for the performance of China’s steel industry next year, Wu Yong of the China Iron and Steel Association and Zhang Qiu Sheng, chief analyst at Nanjing Steel, expressed cautious optimism.

As GMK Center reported earlier, China’s steel exports are expected to reach 90-100 million tons in 2025, down from 110 million tons forecast for 2024. Despite the expected decline in exports, the figure will remain at record levels as local steelmakers struggle to cope with overcapacity and weak domestic demand.

In 2023, China increased its exports of steel products by 36.2% compared to 2022, to 90.3 million tons. Steel production amounted to 1.019 billion tons, up 0.6% compared to 2022. The downward trend in the country’s steel industry has stopped after two consecutive years of declining production.