Rolled steel consumption in China will fall by 5.4% y/y in 2025 – forecast

Steel consumption in China will reach approximately 808 million tons in 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year. This is according to a recent report by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI), Kallanish reports.

In 2026, annual rolled steel consumption will fall by 1% y/y to 800 million tons. The forecasts are based on a combination of steel consumption and consumption in the manufacturing industry.

This year, according to MPI estimates, steel consumption in the construction sector has fallen by almost 13% to 400 million tons due to the situation in the real estate market. Demand related to this sector is expected to decline by 4.1% year-on-year in 2026, to 384 million tons.

At the same time, demand for steel in the automotive industry will grow by 10.9% to 66.7 million tons by the end of 2025, significantly faster than in other sectors.

MPI also predicts that global demand for rolled steel in 2025 will decline by 1.8% year-on-year, with potential growth of 1% in 2026.

It should be recalled that Chinese steel enterprises reduced steel production by 10.9% in November 2025 compared to the same month last year and by 2.9% compared to the previous month, to 69.87 million tons. The indicator has been declining for the sixth consecutive month in monthly comparison and has reached its lowest level since December 2023.

In January-November, the country produced 891.67 million tons of steel (-4% y/y), 774.05 million tons of pig iron (-2.3% y/y), and 1.333 billion tons of rolled steel (+4% y/y).