Rio Tinto cuts iron ore supply to lowest since 2019 in Q1

Cyclones in Australia disrupted the company's plans, which warns of the risk of disrupting the forecast for 2025

Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest iron ore producers, recorded the lowest supply volume since 2019 in the first quarter of 2025, with only 70.7 million tons from its deposits in the Pilbara region of Australia. This is lower than both last year’s figure of 78 million tons and the market forecast of Visible Alpha – 73.6 million tons, according to Reuters.

The reason for this was a series of tropical cyclones that disrupted the operation of the Dampier port and caused losses of up to 13 million tons. The company warns that new weather disruptions could jeopardize the achievement of the lower limit of the annual supply forecast in the range of 323-338 million tons for 2025.

“The outlook for Pilbara remains dependent on the timing of new mine approvals and environmental permits. The system has a limited capacity to compensate for new losses in the event of deteriorating weather conditions,” Rio Tinto said in an official statement.

To compensate for at least half of the losses, the company is implementing a recovery plan worth about A$150 million (≈$95 million), which includes equipment repairs and contract mining.

Meanwhile, copper production at all assets increased by 16% y/y – to 210 kt, but decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter. In particular, at Kennecott’s Utah operation, volumes fell by 32% due to emergency damage to a conveyor, but grew by 7% year-on-year. The company reported that the conveyor has been fully restored.

As a reminder, Rio Tinto has forecast an increase in iron ore production by 15 million tons in the period 2023-2025. The company’s key focus is the Simandou project in Guinea, which it plans to launch in 2025. At the same time, the production targets for the Pilbara region (Australia) remain unchanged – between 323 and 338 million tons of iron ore in 2025. This region will also be the basis for the implementation of a safe production system, which will help to gradually improve the efficiency of operations.