Pipe production in the EU to fall by 2% y/y in 2024 – EUROFER

EU steel pipe producers will reduce production by 2% in 2024 compared to 2023. This forecast was published by EUROFER in its Economic and steel market outlook 2024-2025, Q4.

“In 2023, output in the EU steel tube sector experienced a milder-than-projected drop (-1.5%), which is expected to be followed by another, more severe drop (-2%) in 2024, and by moderate growth in 2025 (+0.8%),” the report says.

In Q2 2024, pipe production in the EU slowed to 1.6% y/y compared to -4.4% y/y in the first quarter. The positive trend in the sector after the COVID-19 pandemic was interrupted in 2022 by the war in Ukraine and the associated disruptions and problems in the supply chain.

In the long term, demand for large welded pipes in the oil and gas sector is not expected to improve significantly as the EU has accelerated its transition to LNG transportation for energy needs, reducing dependence on pipeline gas. On the other hand, there are no expectations for an increase in demand for pipe products from the oil and gas industry amid high geopolitical uncertainty and poor global economic prospects. The construction sector is also not expected to improve its consumption of pipes, while demand in the automotive and machine-building industries will remain relatively high.

Apparent steel consumption in the EU in 2024 is expected to decline by 1.8% compared to 2023, to 127 million tons, according to EUROFER forecasts. In 2025, it is expected to recover by 3.8% y/y.

As GMK Center reported earlier, in January-July 2024, the European Union imported 18.58 million tonnes of rolled steel products, up 6% year-on-year. In particular, supplies of flat products increased by 8.8% y/y – to 14.25 million tons, while long products decreased by 2.1% y/y – to 4.32 million tons. Imports of pipes to the EU increased by 7.3% over 7 months compared to January-July 2023 to 1.85 million tons.