Iron ore prices overcome psychological barrier

The cost of imported Fe 62 iron ore in China fell by $5/t – to $96/t CFR Qingdao from April 7 to 8, according to Kallanish. High-grade Fe 65 ore in the port of Qingdao fell from $114/t to $109/t CFR over the same period. Low-grade Fe 58 ore also lost $5/t to reach $83/t CFR.

The stock market managed to react to the sharp drop in spot prices. On April 8, futures for May ore delivery on the Singapore Exchange fell by $3/t. Thus, contracts for Fe 62 ore were offered at $95/t, for Fe 65 up to $108/t, for Fe 58 – at $82/t.

Traders note that steel mills in China are currently postponing purchases of ore, expecting further price declines. This leads to an accumulation of ore stocks, forcing miners to accept a discount.

Market participants are also paying attention to the wave of protective measures against imports launched this spring by the United States and supported by other countries.

This is expected to further deteriorate export opportunities, particularly for finished steel products. This is forcing steel mills to be cautious when purchasing raw materials.

Buyer sentiment was probably also affected by an updated report from the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources. The agency confirmed its previous forecast in early April. It suggests that the average global price of iron ore will fall to $85 per tonne in 2025, down from $95 per tonne in 2024.

Brazilian customs data released in early April confirm the deteriorating price environment in the global commodity market. In March, Brazil’s iron ore exports increased by 8% y/y and 12% m/m – to 28.4 million tons. However, the average price fell to $71.6/t FOB compared to $92.5/t FOB in March 2024.

As GMK Center reported earlier, on April 10, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China imposed tariffs of 34% on imports of all goods from the United States. In response, President Donald Trump promised to increase duties on imports of Chinese products by another 50%, in addition to the previously imposed fees with a total rate of 54%.