Iron ore prices have been mostly stagnant since early June

At the beginning of June 2025, the iron ore market remains uncertain, with signs of stagnation and limited volatility. Despite isolated spikes in prices, the overall trend since the beginning of June has been mostly flat, due to a combination of fundamental, seasonal, and geopolitical factors.

As of June 13, September iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rose by only 0.4% compared to the end of May, to $98.1/t. At the same time, July contracts on the Singapore Exchange fell by 1.7% to $94.6/t, the lowest level since April. This indicates a weakening of demand for spot cargoes amid stable speculative sentiment.

In early June, ore prices declined amid holidays in China (Dragon Boat Festival), during which the activity of traders and metallurgical plants was minimized. Additional pressure on the market was caused by Donald Trump’s announcement of his intention to double steel import duties to 50%, which heightened fears about global trade.

A slight recovery on June 4 was due to an unexpected increase in coking coal prices due to supply problems from Mongolia. This gave a temporary boost to the iron ore market, but prices fell again the next day.

Some optimism returned on June 6 after a phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, which signaled an easing of trade tensions. However, the effect of this news was short-lived—within a few days, the market lost momentum again due to the lack of concrete results from the negotiations and weak seasonal demand in China.

The medium-term outlook remains subdued. The deterioration of China’s steel industry PMI index in May (to 46.4 points) indicates a decline in production and new orders. In addition, iron ore imports to China in May fell by 5% compared to April (to 98.13 million tons), reflecting the strategic shift of some plants to domestic procurement.

Iron ore prices are expected to remain in the $90-95/t range in July. The seasonal slowdown in construction, high inventories of finished products, limited growth in domestic demand in China, and uncertainty in global trade will hold back buyer activity. Potential support may come from new infrastructure stimulus in China or production restrictions in Australia or Brazil. However, the market is currently balancing between weak fundamentals and speculative impulses.

As reported by GMK Center, Moody’s expects iron ore prices to remain at $80-100/t over the next 12-18 months. This forecast is due to weak demand from China and high supply in the global market.

A similar view was expressed by analysts at BMI Country Risk and Industry Research. They maintain their forecast for the average annual price in 2025 at $100/t, although they acknowledge the pressure from weak demand.