New tariffs and CBAM will push up steel prices in the EU and the UK – forecast

Steel prices in the EU and the UK will rise after new tariffs and the Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) come into force. This is the forecast of British steel supplier All Steels, according to SteelOrbis.

In particular, the CBAM, which is set to come into force on January 1, 2026, could add between £30 and £130 per ton to the cost of UK imports, depending on origin and carbon intensity.

At the same time, the revised EU safeguard system will limit total duty-free imports to 18.3 million tons per year, which is about half the current quota.

Although the UK government has not yet announced its final position, All Steels expects parallel or coordinated measures with the EU to be introduced to restrict imports from non-EU countries. If European and British producers from the EU can recreate 18-20 million tons of domestic demand, the sector could regain profitability and free up capital for investment in decarbonization.

All Steels warns that if excess imports are fully taxed at 50%, this will lead to a sharp rise in prices.

The current EU and UK safeguard measures expire on June 30, 2026, but the EC intends to ratify the new rules earlier (from January 1 or April 1 next year), subject to legislative approval and WTO approval.

The company notes that negotiations with European factories and distributors show early signs of manufacturers returning to the markets as buyers seek to avoid CBAM-related costs. Traders are leaving Asian markets due to long lead times and tariff risks, with plans to reduce imports in 2026 and move to local producers.

All Steels predicts that steel prices in the EU and UK could rise to £80 per tonne (€92.05) in the short term, and later in 2026, the increase will exceed £200/ton (€230.1) after the full implementation of protective measures. The company draws parallels with recent price dynamics in the US following recent trade measures.

In the near term, aggressive price declines may continue due to seasonality, but sentiment at mills is improving as buyers return to local supplies.

As GMK Center reported earlier, on October 7, the European Commission presented a proposal to protect the EU steel industry from the unfair impact of global excess production capacity. This involves limiting duty-free imports to 18.3 million tons per year, a 47% reduction compared to the 2024 steel quotas, and doubling the duty rate on products outside the quota to 50%.