Goldman Sachs raises iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $93/t

Goldman Sachs has raised its iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $93/t (previously $88/t), according to Bloomberg.

These expectations are driven by macroeconomic support, inventory reductions, and steady steel production in China.

However, the published forecast is still significantly below the level at which iron ore futures are currently trading.

According to a note from Goldman Sachs analysts, the market for this commodity remains tighter than expected in recent months. Prices have been supported by steady pig iron production in China, which has kept port inventories unchanged over the past two quarters, as well as the appreciation of the yuan.

However, the bank notes that the outlook remains negative, with prices expected to fall to $88/t by the last quarter of next year as the Chinese steel sector has already returned to oversupply.

On the supply side, Goldman Sachs notes that global iron ore supplies have grown by 15% year-on-year since the beginning of the current quarter, which is likely to exacerbate seasonal stockpiling in ports and contribute to their growth throughout 2026.

Iron ore imports to China are showing steady growth despite the decline in steel production. According to Kpler analysts, supplies will reach 113.06 million tons in October 2025, which will be the second highest figure in history after a record 116.33 million tons in September.

As GMK Center reported earlier, China increased its iron ore imports by 4.9% compared to 2023, to 1.24 billion tons, in 2024. The country has been importing record volumes of raw materials for the second year in a row. In 2023, the volume amounted to 1.18 billion tons (+6.6% y/y).