Goldman Sachs lowered its iron ore price forecast for the fourth quarter to $85/t

Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their forecast for iron ore prices for the fourth quarter of 2024, reducing it by $15 – to $85 per tonne. This is due to oversupply in the market and stabilization of demand from the largest consumer, China, Reuters reports.

Last week, iron ore futures in the Far Eastern markets rose as expectations of a recovery in demand from China spurred positive sentiment in the market. However, the country’s economic recovery is slower than expected.

The bank’s experts note a possible short-term rise in prices due to restocking ahead of the holiday week. However, in general, prices are expected to decline further in October due to high inventory levels.

The key risk remains a possible drop in exports due to a decline in steel production in China. This could lead to an additional decline in demand for iron ore. Domestic demand is likely to remain weak.

In early September, iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell to 678.5 yuan per tonne ($95.6 per tonne) and on the Singapore Exchange – to $90.8 per tonne. Weak macroeconomic data in China and no signs of recovery in steel demand continue to put pressure on iron ore prices.