The World Steel Association WorldSteel has downgraded its short-term forecast for global steel demand in 2024. Volumes are expected to decline by 0.9% compared to 2023 to 1.75 billion tons, while the previous forecast assumed a 1.7% y/y increase – to 1.79 billion.
At the same time, in 2025, global steel demand is expected to grow by 1.2% y/y after three consecutive years of decline to 1.77 billion tons.
“2024 has been a difficult year for global steel demand as the global manufacturing sector continued to grapple with persistent headwinds such as declining household purchasing power, aggressive monetary tightening, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing weakness in housing construction, which is driven by tight financing conditions and high costs, has further contributed to the sluggish demand for steel,” comments Dr. Martin Thüringer, CEO of the German Steel Association and Chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee.
The significant revision of the forecast is the result of changing trends in China and most major developed countries. At the same time, India is expected to maintain its strong recovery momentum.
Thus, steel demand in China will decline by 3% in 2024 and by another 1% in 2025. Developing countries (excluding China) will show growth of 3.5% y/y this year and 4.2% next year. India has become the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021, and this trend will continue, in particular, in 2024-2025, the indicator will grow by 8% y/y. This will be facilitated by steady demand from steel-consuming sectors, especially infrastructure.
Demand for steel in other developing countries, such as the Middle East and North Africa and ASEAN, will recover in 2024 after a significant slowdown in 2022-2023. In developed countries, the figure will decline by 2.0% in 2024 as major steel consuming economies such as the United States, Japan, Korea and Germany face a significant downturn. However, demand may grow by 1.9% in 2025.
As, Yuriy Ryzhenkov, CEO of Metinvest Group, previously noted, the global steel market is experiencing its longest downturn in 20 years. The cyclical steel market peaked in late 2021 and early 2022. The market then declined due to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the worsening energy crisis, supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty around the world.
The negative phase of the market will be reversed by the US government’s actions to cut the discount rate and the stimulus package recently introduced by the Chinese government.
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