Прогнозы Anglo American
Global iron ore exports remained stable in October 2025, with high volumes continuing to be shipped from the main producing countries. India accounted for most of the growth, while Australia and Brazil recorded moderate increases in shipments, and South Africa, on the contrary, reduced exports due to logistical difficulties. This is evidenced by data from BigMint.
Australia exported 81.9 million tons of iron ore and pellets in October, up 3.6% from September. The largest exporters were Rio Tinto (30.5 million tons; +5.5% m/m), BHP (25.2 million tons), and Fortescue Metals Group (18 million tons). China remained the main consumer (68.2 million tons; +1.9% m/m), followed by Japan and South Korea. Disputes between a major Australian producer and Chinese importers over pricing conditions held back slight growth.
Brazil increased exports by 3.2% m/m – to 37.08 million tons, 11% more than a year ago. The main destinations remained China (24.26 million tons), Malaysia (1.85 million tons), and India (1.37 million tons). The resumption of supplies is explained by the desire of Chinese metallurgists to diversify their sources of supply and optimize costs.
South Africa, on the contrary, reduced exports by 33.6% m/m – to 3.3 million tons due to port congestion, transport disruptions, and high freight rates. The only exception was South Korea, which increased imports by 140% m/m.
India showed the highest growth. Exports increased by 14.8% m/m – to 2.17 million tons. The increase in activity is associated with expectations of changes in export duties after the end of the rainy season.
Overall, the iron ore market remained balanced in October. The increase in supplies from Asia and Latin America offset losses in Africa.
As a reminder, in 2024, global iron ore exports grew by 2% year-on-year to approximately 1.6 billion tons. Australia remains the largest exporter of this raw material (866 million tons, +1.4% y/y). Brazil ranks second (390 million tons, +2.6% year-on-year) and South Africa third (61 million tons, +3.4% year-on-year).
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