Global coking coal prices continued to fall in late March

Premium coking coal (PHCC) prices in Australia fell by $10/t from March 14 to March 28, to $168/t FOB, according to Kallanish. Overall, the decline for the month was $20/t. On the Singapore Exchange, April futures fell by $4/t compared to the previous week, to $172/t FOB.

Chinese traders attribute this to large supplies of the product from Mongolia. As a result, many offers of Australian coal for sea transportation remain unclaimed. Local miners hope that Indian coke plants will be able to buy up available volumes before the start of the monsoon season. Premium coking coal prices in China remained unchanged at $176/t EXW from March 14 to 28. Overall, the product fell by $6/t in March.

“Chinese coking coal prices may continue to fall due to oversupply,” one of the traders told Kallanish.

Production of metallurgical coke in China in January-February 2025 increased by 1.6%, to 81.9 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Of these, 16.45 million tons came from Shanxi Province, the largest coke-producing region. Coke exports fell by 33% to 1.01 million tons.

Indian premium coking coal prices fell by $10/t to $188/t CNF Paradip on March 31 compared to March 13, according to BigMint. The agency notes that prices for the product have reached a four-year low.

It is worth noting that on April 1, the Indian authorities initiated an anti-dumping investigation into coking coal imports from Australia, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan and Russia. If protective duties are imposed, the Indian market will be closed to producers from these countries. In turn, this will further increase supply pressure in the global market.

Earlier, investment bank Morgan Stanley reported, citing sources, that the Chinese authorities may reinstate restrictions on coal imports that were in effect until 2022. At that time, the total volume of coal imports, both thermal and coking, was not to exceed 200 million tons per year. According to sources, Beijing became concerned about this issue after leading industry groups warned of a growing oversupply.

Recall that high coke stocks at Chinese producers are forcing them to cut prices. As a result, the price of fine-grained coke grade I in the port of Rizhao for the period from March 7 to March 21 fell by $4/t, to $186/t EXW.