Fitch Solutions downgrades global steel price forecast for 2024

The BMI Country Risk and Industry Research division of the international credit rating agency Fitch Solutions has revised its forecast for the average global steel price for 2024 to $660/t from $770/t as domestic demand in China is expected to decline amid weakness in the real estate sector. It is reported by Reuters.

Amid a slowdown in the global economy, weak demand and oversupply of steel are still holding back the global steel industry from growth. Although the deteriorating industrial and economic outlook is expected to limit steel supply, the slowdown in the global manufacturing sector will continue to restrain demand.

Despite these factors, the agency expects global steel production to grow by 1.2% in 2024, with robust demand from India supporting steel consumption.

As previously reported, Fitch Ratings expects iron ore prices to reach $105/t in 2024, $90/t – in 2025 and $85/t – in 2026. Coking coal prices are expected to reach $240/t in 2024, $190/t – in 2025 and $170/t – in 2026.

Global steel production in 2023 decreased by 0.1% compared to 2022 – to 1.85 billion tonnes. Total steel production in the CIS+Ukraine increased by 4.5% year-on-year – to 88.1 million tonnes in 2022.

In January-July 2024, the global steel industry reduced steel production by 0.7% compared to the same period in 2023, to 1.11 billion tonnes. In the CIS+Ukraine region, the figure remained at the level of the previous year – 51.5 million tonnes. In particular, Ukraine increased steel production by 33.6% y/y over 7 months – to 4.58 million tonnes.