Fitch Ratings upgrades iron ore price outlook for 2024-2026

International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024-2026 amid limited supply, SteelOrbis reports.

In 2024, the price of iron ore is expected to reach $105/t, in 2025 – $90/t, and in 2026 – $85/t. The previous forecast was $95/t, $80/t and $75/t, respectively.

The March forecast reflects the operational problems of many large commodity producers due to underinvestment since 2020. This hinders their ability to increase production to the planned levels, which limits supply.

As for coking coal, Fitch expects its price to reach $240/t in 2024 and $190/t in 2025. The previous forecast was $210/t and $180/t, respectively. The price assumption for 2026 remains unchanged at $170/t.

The price forecast for coking coal was raised due to a decline in sea supplies amid weak exports from Australia and Russia. The agency noted that Australian supplies are likely to gradually recover in the second quarter of this year, while exports from sanctioned Russian producers will remain limited. Demand is supported by high rates of steel production in China, but they may decline later this year.

As GMK Center reported earlier, global iron ore prices fell to a 6-month low in mid-March. As of March 13, iron ore quotations on the Dalian Exchange amounted to $112.29/t, and on the Singapore Exchange – $103.45/t. During February, prices for raw materials fell by 10.6% on the Singapore Exchange and by 7.6% on the Dalian Exchange, and since the beginning of the year the decline was -19.5% and -25.3%, respectively.