Fitch Ratings has raised its price outlook for iron ore and coking coal for 2026

Fitch Ratings has raised its price forecasts for iron ore and coking coal for the current year.

The iron ore price forecast for this year has been raised from $90/t to $95/t. This projection reflects higher production costs, which will support mid-cycle prices at around $75/t. Prices at the start of the year, which are above $100/t, are likely to decline as supply increases and inventories at Chinese ports grow.

Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have been revised from $75 and $70 per ton to $85 and $80, respectively.

The upward revision of the short-term forecast for coking coal (from $180 to $190 per ton) reflects strong prices in early 2026 following the cyclone in Australia. Fitch Ratings analysts expect prices to gradually decline starting in the second quarter. However, the rating agency left its forecast for 2027 and 2028 unchanged at $180/ton.

It should be noted that, despite mounting tensions over energy prices, the global coking coal market remained generally stable in early March.

As reported by GMK Center, in January of this year, India designated coking coal as a critically important and strategic mineral. This move is aimed at reducing dependence on imports of this product for steel production.

Subsequently, in March, the Coal Association of Canada, against the backdrop of recently announced coal export agreements with India, emphasized the strategic importance of coking coal and the need to officially recognize it as a critically important mineral.