Economic forecasts

According to the forecast, GDP growth in the G20 will slow to 2.5% this year

Tight financial conditions will continue to weigh on global economic growth through the end of this year. This is stated in the August Global Macro Outlook 2023-2024 report of the international rating agency Moody’s, informs SteelOrbis.

Moody’s forecasts G20 GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2023 and 2.1% – in 2024 from 2.7% in 2022. As for China, the agency lowered its 2024 growth expectations to 4% from 4.5% as the country still faces major challenges.

The forecast for the growth of India’s economy for the current year has been increased to 6.7% from 5.5%, for the USA – to 1.9% from 1.1%, for Turkiye – to 4.2% from 2.6%.

According to the agency, the world’s leading central banks will continue to implement restrictive policies next year.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the Central Bank (CB) of Turkiye on August 24, 2023, unexpectedly increased lending rates from 17.5% to 25%. Participants of the local steel market were shocked by such a decision of the Central Bank, as it was previously noted that interest rates will rise at a moderate pace despite high inflation. This led to a sharp appreciation of the Turkish lira against other currencies, and steel trade on the domestic market came to a standstill.

Also, the slowdown in China’s growth will affect global demand on steel and raw materials, but India can make up some of the deficit. This is stated in the report of the ANZ bank (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group).