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Economic forecasts

Compared to the same period in 2023, the indicator increased by 0.6% in the Eurozone and by 0.7% in the EU

The seasonally adjusted GDP of the euro area and the European Union in April-June 2024 increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the eurozone and EU economies also grew by 0.3% qoq, according to preliminary Eurostat data.

Compared to the same period in 2023, GDP grew by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU. On average, analysts predicted that the GDP of the euro area and the EU would grow by 0.2% q/q and 0.5% y/y in the second quarter.

Among the EU member states, Ireland (+1.2%), Lithuania (+0.9%) and Spain (+0.8%) showed the highest quarterly GDP growth. The largest drops were recorded in Latvia (-1.1%), Sweden (-0.8%), and Hungary (-0.2%).

In annual comparison, the fastest growth rates were recorded in Ireland – by 1.4%, Latvia – by 0.4%, and Germany – by 0.1%. At the same time, the largest growth was recorded in Spain – by 2.9%, Portugal – by 1.5% and Lithuania – by 1.4%.

The European Central Bank has raised its inflation forecast to 2.5% in 2024 from the previously expected 2.3%, and in 2025 – from 2% to 2.2%. In addition, the regulator raised its forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2024 to 0.9% from 0.6% expected in March, but lowered it for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.5%. In 2026, the eurozone’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% and inflation will reach 1.9%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, inflation in the eurozone increased by 2.5% in June 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. Thus, the rate slowed down compared to May, when it was 2.6%.