European prices for hot-rolled coils declined in the first half of April

The price of hot-rolled coils in Southern Europe fell by €20/t in the first half of the month to €545/t CIF as of April 11. According to Kallanish, this is due to the presence of large stocks of non-cleared imported products in ports. In particular, from Vietnam.

European steel mills fear that if the price of hot-rolled coils rises further, foreign-made coils will become more attractive to buyers, despite the duties.

Vietnam’s quota for duty-free imports of hot-rolled coils to the EU was exceeded back in Q1. At that time, the additional tariff for Vietnamese producers was in the range of 8-10%. It is likely that the tariff will increase in Q2 after the quota mechanism is adjusted by the European Commission in March.

Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils in the main consumption sectors does not show any recovery. The number of new car registrations in the EU decreased by 2.6% in January and by 3.4% in February, to 831.2 thousand units and 853.67 thousand units, respectively.

However, in March, S&P Global raised its forecast for EU car production in 2025 by 63 thousand units. According to analysts, this is due to the European Commission’s revision of EU CAFE rules, which extended the current environmental standards for cars with internal combustion engines until 2028.

In the United States, the cost of hot-rolled coils in the first half of April remained unchanged at $975/t EXW as of April 11. Earlier it was noted that American steel mills refrain from further price increases, given the possible resumption of imports. Thus, the quotes reached a local maximum, which the market is able to support.

New car sales in the US in March totaled 1.56 million units, according to Cox Automotive. Initially, the company expected sales of 1.43 million units. The increase is due to the introduction of additional 25% duties on car imports to the United States on April 2. In this regard, the sales forecast for 2025 has been raised to 17.8 million units, up from the previous 15.9 million units.

At the same time, Cox Automotive expects a slowdown in sales in the second half of the year due to the import duties on spare parts. They will increase the cost of new cars in the US market.

Offers for hot rolled coils in India increased by $22/t in the first half of the month to $592/t FOB as of April 11. The rise in prices for all types of steel products is due to the start of the new fiscal year (which began on April 1).

In China, the price of hot-rolled coils fell to $470/t FOB as of April 11, compared to $480/t FOB as of March 28. Increased public investment and steel exports are not helping to remove excess steel products from the market, which are the result of overproduction. This pushes steel mills to further reduce prices.

As reported, China increased its exports of steel products by 6.3% y/y – to 27.43 million tons in January-March 2025. This is the highest level since 2016.