European carbon prices exceeded €80/t in November

Market participants expect systematic purchases of carbon allowances to continue

According to ICE data, on November 3, carbon prices in the EU (contract for December 2025) rose above €80/t again. This was due to improved sentiment in energy-intensive industries amid Germany’s plans to introduce measures that will help reduce electricity costs for such sectors starting in January 2026.

EUA futures for December 2025 traded at €81.2/t on that day, and on November 4, the price rose to €82.3/t, the highest level since mid-February this year. The market considers reaching the €80 mark to be a psychological barrier, which could lead to systematic purchases and the closing of short positions.

The move to new highs began after several attempts in October. However, experts were skeptical about traders’ ability to continue pouring capital into long positions in order to maintain these levels.

In the near term, EU Today notes, the market direction will depend on spreads between different fuel types, winter electricity demand, and the volume of quota offers at auctions. A definitive trend reversal can be confirmed with a sustained close above €80.

On November 5-6, EUA prices corrected, falling due to several factors: weakness in energy markets, the agreement reached in Brussels on the EU’s 2040 climate target, and information about the agreement to start negotiations on the integration of the ETS bloc and the UK. However, since the beginning of this week, they have shown growth again amid fluctuations in energy prices.

At the recent Carbon Forward Expo London conference, analysts from several companies agreed in their forecasts that EUA prices would rise to at least €100/t by 2027 due to a shortage of quotas.