China will reduce steel exports to 90-100 million tons in 2025 – analysts

China’s steel exports in 2025 are expected to reach 90-100 million tons, down from 110 million tons forecast for 2024. Despite the expected decline in exports, the figure will remain at record levels as local steelmakers struggle to cope with overcapacity and weak domestic demand, Reuters reports, citing a group of analysts.

Domestic steel consumption in China has weakened in recent years amid economic instability and problems in the real estate sector. At the same time, steel production has been stable, leading to oversupply. Local steelmakers have been exporting these volumes at competitive prices, which they can afford due to lower production costs. This led to a sharp increase in exports from the country to the highs of 2014-2016. In particular, in 2023, the volume reached 90.3 million tons, and in the first 9 months of 2024 – 80.7 million tons (+21.2% y/y).

In 2025, China is likely to maintain record export volumes, driven by improving global steel demand. The country’s key steel companies, including Baoshan Iron & Steel, have also announced their intention to increase shipments.

“The low cost of Chinese steel and rising demand from Southeast Asia, MENA and India will pose risks to the growth of steel exports from China in 2025 and beyond,” said Lawrence Zhang, Principal Consultant, Steel and Commodities, Wood Mackenzie.

At the same time, the rapid growth of China’s steel exports has prompted complaints from a number of countries, including Turkey and Indonesia, which have already imposed anti-dumping duties to protect local producers. In total, 28 trade lawsuits were filed against Chinese steel in 2023.

“This trend will continue and intensify in 2025,” added Lawrence Zhang.

Although Chinese steel and export groups warn that trade disputes and a stronger currency will hamper exports in 2025, analysts and traders believe that one way or another, Chinese producers will find a price level that will allow them to export.

Another key risk to Chinese steel exports is Beijing’s crackdown on value-added tax evasion. According to analysts, exports without paying tax in 2023 accounted for about a third of the total volume of shipped products. The authorities have set up a team to investigate illegal steel exports, Luo Tiejun, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, said last week.

As GMK Center reported earlier, China produced 1.019 billion tons of steel in 2023, up 0.6% from 2022. The downward trend in the country’s steel industry has stopped after two consecutive years of declining production.