Businesses weakened their assessments of business activity in November – NBU

The index of business activity expectations calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in November this year dropped by 2.3 points to 47.2 points compared to 49.4 in October. This is reported on the regulator’s website.

According to the NBU, the increased intensity of hostilities, the resumption of power outages due to Russian attacks, further growth in energy, labor and logistics costs, accelerating inflation, a significant shortage of qualified personnel, as well as seasonality restrained economic activity and affected business valuations.

In particular, the sectoral index of industrial enterprises in November dropped by 3.1 points – to 46.7 points (49.8 in October). This was due to the deterioration of the security situation, power outages, and rising production costs.

Unlike in the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of manufactured products and new orders, and weakened estimates of both new export orders for products and work in progress.

On the other hand, the NBU notes that estimates of finished goods inventories improved slightly, and an increase in raw materials and supplies was also expected.

The most pessimistic estimates of current economic performance in November were provided by construction companies, given the seasonal slowdown in infrastructure construction and the lack of skilled workers. The sectoral index last month amounted to 43.6 points, compared to 49.6 in October.

According to the NBU, the situation on the labor market remains difficult. Respondents from all sectors expected a reduction in the number of staff, most significantly in the service sector.

The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from November 4 to November 21. A total of 504 enterprises participated in the survey. Among those surveyed, 44.2% were industrial companies, 27.6% were service companies, 23.4% were trade companies, and 4.8% were construction companies; 29.6% of respondents were large enterprises, 28.8% were medium-sized enterprises, and 41.7% were small enterprises. At the same time, 31.7% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Ukrainian business is investing in building its own energy independence, according to a study by the European Business Association (EBA). The main obstacles to the implementation of projects to restore and develop energy infrastructure in Ukraine include military operations and risks to investment.