The ECB has left its key interest rates unchanged

On 23 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged. This is stated in a press release from the regulator.

The deposit rate remained at 2.25%, the rate on main refinancing operations at 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%.

According to the ECB’s statement, the outlook for energy prices, whilst characterised by high volatility, is currently close to the baseline scenario of European experts’ expectations from June. However, they are significantly higher than the levels seen prior to the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.

The level of uncertainty remains high, and the full impact of the energy shock on inflation has not yet been fully felt. The regulator is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of this impact, as well as its indirect consequences.

The ECB has stated that it will adopt a data-dependent approach, to be determined at each meeting individually, when setting monetary policy. Decisions on interest rates will be based on an assessment of inflation forecasts and the associated risks, taking into account incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of core inflation and the strength of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

It is worth recalling that in June, the ECB raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years, in response to the energy shock against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the regulator raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 3%, compared with 2.6% in its previous review in March. The forecast for 2027 stands at 2.3 %, and for 2028 at 2%.